Sunday, 4 August 2013

Military Strategy Forum with Major General Steven L. Kwast, Director, U.S. Air Force Quadrennial Defense Review

The Center for Strategic and International Studies presents the latest in the special QDR Discussion Series of the Military Strategy Forum?

The Quadrennial Defense Review:

United States Air Force?

?

a discussion with

?

Major General Steven L. Kwast

Director, U.S. Air Force Quadrennial Defense Review

?

and?

?

David J. Berteau

CSIS Senior Vice President and Director of the International Security Program

?

The past week has brought renewed focus to the QDR. Please join us for a discussion with Major General Kwast, followed by a Q&A.

?

Tuesday, August 6, 2013

1:30 - 2:30 p.m.

?

CSIS

1800 K St NW, B1AB Conference Room

Washington DC 20006

?

The Military Strategy Forum Series is Underwritten by?Rolls-Royce North America?

?

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/csis-events-listing/~3/SmacsfwHRPg/military-strategy-forum-major-general-steven-l-kwast-director-us-air-force-quadrennial-defense

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Message from Milwaukee (Balloon Juice)

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Saturday, 3 August 2013

How Much Is a Sports Rivalry Worth?

New York Yankees' Alex Rodriguez (L) takes a punch from Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek in the third inning at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts July 24, 2004.

New York Yankees' Alex Rodriguez takes one from Boston Red Sox catcher Jason Varitek at Fenway Park July 24, 2004.

Photo by Brian Snyder/Reuters

When I went to my first game at Fenway Park in 2002, I was excited to hear Red Sox fans outside the stadium chanting ?Yankees suck! Yankees suck!?

I turned to the guy who invited me and said, ?Hey, you got me tickets to a Yankees game? Awesome.?

?Nope,? he answered. ?They?re playing the Cleveland Indians.?

By some subjective and completely unscientific measures, the Yankees?Red Sox rivalry is the most storied in American sports. In fact, it has been a rather lopsided affair, even accounting for the Theo Epstein?led resurgence of the Red Sox that began about a decade ago. The Yankees have won 27 world championships. Boston has won seven, with just two of those since 1918. The Red Sox have a .457 winning percentage against the Yankees since 1900, their worst record against any team in the American League. Still, the Sox obsession with the Bronx Bombers has a tangible benefit.

?Boston is a relatively large-market team, but the Red Sox enhance their value by playing up the rivalry with the Yankees,? says Evan Osborne, an economist at Wright State University who has done economic modeling on sports rivalries. ?For the Yankees, it?s much less important. Everyone hates them, so, in a sense, every team is their rival.?

If a sports team needs one thing?well, it?s probably a large market. But if a franchise needs a second thing to ensure its economic health, it?s a good rivalry. How much hay has Boston made by playing David to the Yanks? Goliath? According to the 2013 Forbes rankings, the Red Sox are the third most valuable team in baseball, behind the larger-market Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Red Sox are worth 47 percent more than the Philadelphia Phillies, who occupy a much bigger city. Though there are obviously many factors that come into play here?the added value of a treasured landmark like Fenway Park, Boston?s historic affection for baseball?the Phillies? lack of a historic rival like the Yankees surely factors into the club?s lower standing in the financial standings.

The Forbes baseball rankings, from top to bottom, demonstrate the value of a rivalry. The top few teams are all involved in intense rivalries: The Yankees have the Red Sox, the Dodgers have the Giants, and the Cubs have the Cardinals. Most baseball fans would struggle to identify true rivals for the least valuable teams. (Sorry, Royals fans. The Cardinals don?t really think of you as their main rivals.) It?s hard to separate correlation from causation here, but the correlation is striking.

College football, with only a dozen games a year and enormous stadiums to fill, may be the most extreme example of the economic value of sports rivalries to a community. The game between the University of Idaho and Boise State reportedly brings $1 million to the Moscow, Idaho economy in one weekend. And a local restaurateur reports a 65 to 75 percent increase in sales on the day of the Utah?BYU game. And, where there?s money, politicians are sure to meddle. The South Carolina House of Representatives last year considered, but ultimately rejected, a law mandating an annual football game between Clemson and the University of South Carolina. And a former Texas governor publicly pleaded in vain to keep Texas A&M in the Big 12 to maintain their rivalry with the University of Texas.

Recognizing the value of a good rivalry, American sports leagues go to great lengths to create and promote them. When the NFL realigned its divisions in 2002, the league minimized the combined geographic distances between the teams in each conference, likely as a means to maximize the possibility that nearby fans would develop intense antipathy for each other. The divisions with the least combined distance between the teams, the NFC North and the AFC Central, feature some of the strongest rivalries, according to Osborne?s research. Interleague games in Major League Baseball and interdivision matchups in college football conferences introduce an obvious unfairness into the sport?teams whose traditional rivals are strong are dealt a handicap?but we tolerate it for the sake of entertainment.

Rivalries have an economic value because they seem to tap into the same subconscious processes as other forms of marketing. As Charles Duhigg described in The Power of Habit, marketers use a habit loop consisting of a cue, a routine, and a reward to hook consumers on a product. (Marketing legend Claude Hopkins hooked Americans on toothpaste, for example, by using the film that naturally develops on teeth as a cue and a beautiful smile as a reward.) Rivalries work on the same primitive neurological process. ESPN plays up traditional rivalries on SportsCenter (the cue) in the week leading up to the game (the routine), while the winners take some sort of tangible prize (the reward), like Paul Bunyan?s Axe or the Fremont Cannon. Major League Soccer, unwilling to wait for rivalries to develop organically, has rather unsubtly attempted to push the same buttons in our basal ganglia, with the Rocky Mountain Cup and the Cascadia Cup.

Stoking our primordial passions is a risky economic gambit, though. It may inspire us to care deeply and spend without inhibition, but it also brings out the worst in fans, owners, and athletic directors. Racist chanting and inflatable bananas, directed at superstar Mario Balotelli, interrupted the Milan derby earlier this year. Otherwise good coaches, like Ohio State?s John Cooper, have lost their jobs largely because of poor records against a single team. And rivalry destroyed the Scottish soccer league. As Celtic and Rangers improved, the rest of the league atrophied or regressed, essentially reducing the entire season to the home and away series between the top two teams. In an attempt to finally vanquish their rivals, Rangers owner Sir David Murray boldly declared in 2000, ?For every five pounds Celtic spend, we will spend ten.? The strategy eventually led to the liquidation of his team, with the remnants sent down to a lower division last year.

Like so many other economic tricks, rivalries can do more damage than good when left unregulated. And it?s risky to rely on rivalry as a primary economic strategy. The Yankees, the team that everyone hates, has long been the richest team in the sport. Boston, which is substantially less reviled, is no closer to surpassing the Bronx Bombers? wealth than they are to exceeding their trophy haul.

Source: http://www.slate.com/articles/business/rivalries/2013/08/sports_rivalries_the_economics_of_crosstown_hatred.html

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If you can think of a single reason why #faggot wouldn't be blocked on the iPhone app, I'm all ears.

In the slow battle between humankind's love of porn and Tumblr's need to somehow make money, we find ourselves in a sort of ceasefire: boobs can stay, but they won't be easy to find. Caught in the armistice are plenty of inoffensive things. Why can't I search for #gay on my phone, but it's easy to find naked teens?

David Karp, Tumblr's boy king in the middle of a capitalism crash course, has tried to give an explanation:

Some search terms are blocked (returning no results) in some of our mobile apps. Unfortunately, different app environments have different requirements that we do our best to adhere to. The reason you see innocent tags like #gay being blocked on certain platforms is that they are still frequently returning adult content which our entire app was close to being banned for. The solution is more intelligent filtering which our team is working diligently on.

This is true: searching for "gay" or "lesbian" returns porn along with other, visually innocuous stuff about just being gay. But imagine yourself, for a moment, in this position: you're black, or Jewish, or Italian, or something, and you want to look at things you can relate to on Tumblr. This mere act of searching is barred because of the chance that some porn might be included in the sweep, a boot in the fishnet. The way you are is considered objectionable, a blanket offense.

Meanwhile, with this very same Tumblr app, you can easily search for a slur against you:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

Or pro-anorexia propoganda, which is a violation of Tumblr's non-enforced community guidelines:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

To reiterate: gay, no. Thinspo, yes:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

You can cruise this "hot teen" Tumblr on your iPhone?no problem:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

There are whole Tumblr sites dedicated to underage girls, fully iPhone compatible:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

There are plenty of young girls to cart around on your smartphone:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

But remember?this isn't allowed:

You Can't Look at #Gay on iPhone Tumblr, But #Underage is OK

What's left unsaid here is "Apple," whose notoriously prudish decency policies have been a sticking point for years. It shouldn't be surprising that Apple would threaten to toss out Tumblr's iOS app over gay erotica?they've done it before!

But let's imagine something for a moment.

Imagine if, instead of hastily scrambling to meet Apple's senile puritan mores with censorship policies that don't make sense, Tumblr had said no. Imagine if Tumblr had said Sorry, but blocking an entire sexual orientation is a little too much for us. Imagine of Tumblr had bluffed and said, Go ahead, block our app. Make more kids start using Android. Imagine if Tumblr had passed the buck to Apple?if the blame truly lies there?and let the millions of gay, straight, and whatever people who comprise its hallowed community write petitions. Imagine if Tumblr could pin its porn war on Apple, if it could've made this someone else's problem. Imagine if Tumblr, instead of obfuscating its porn debacle with talks of "app environments" and "filters," just told the truth?Hi everyone, we're still figuring out how to reconcile porn and advertising, but in the meantime, we don't think it's right to block an entire sexual identity.

Imagine if Tumblr, for all its talk of being The Cool Website worth over a billion dollars to Yahoo! actually did the cool thing here. It's sort of hard to imagine!

Source: http://valleywag.gawker.com/if-you-can-think-of-a-single-reason-why-faggot-wouldnt-1004015215

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Friday, 2 August 2013

Cruz seeks grassroots move against health care law

NEW ORLEANS (AP) ? A grassroots effort against President Barack Obama's health care overhaul could persuade skittish Republicans to deny money for the law and overcome arguments that any resulting shutdown of the government would be the GOP's fault, Sen. Ted Cruz said Friday.

"We have to stand up and win the argument," the Texas Republican said to spirited applause on the opening day of the annual RedState Gathering, a meeting of conservatives highly critical of many established Republican leaders as well as Democrats.

Cruz, a tea party-backed first-term lawmaker, has long suggested that one way of taking money from the law would be to hold up a continuing funding resolution to keep government agencies running after Sept. 30. Several of his Republican colleagues have called such a move counterproductive and detrimental to the party and the nation.

Cruz said the effort should start in the House with passage of a resolution that would fund government with the exception of the health care law.

"We don't have the votes right now. In fact, to be honest, we're not close," Cruz said. But, he noted, he won a come-from-behind victory in Texas' Republican Senate primary last year with strong grassroots support, beginning with conservative bloggers.

On Friday, the GOP-controlled House passed for the 40th time a measure targeting the law that Republicans deride as "Obamacare." The bill preventing the Internal Revenue Service from implementing any part of the health care law passed on a near party-line vote of 232-185. But the legislation is certain to be ignored in the Democratic-controlled Senate.

Liberal groups announced Friday a campaign in Louisiana and nine other states to counter criticism of the health care law. They're also encouraging those who need insurance to enroll in the state exchanges established under the law when the enrollment period opens Oct. 1.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/cruz-seeks-grassroots-move-against-health-care-law-224432091.html

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AstraZeneca warns of higher costs as drug sales slide

By Ben Hirschler

LONDON (Reuters) - British drugmaker AstraZeneca warned on Thursday of higher costs in 2013 as it invests through a slump in sales caused by a wave of patent expiries on key medicines.

The prediction that operating costs will now increase by a low-to-mid single digit percentage rate this year amounts to an effective cut in earnings guidance, analysts at Jefferies said.

Deutsche Bank said consensus full-year earnings forecasts could fall by a couple of percent.

New Chief Executive Pascal Soriot is striving to turn around the business after a series of setbacks in research and a wave of patent expiries. He has warned that fixing Britain's second-biggest drugmaker will take several years.

Sales in the second quarter fell by a slightly greater-than-expected 6 percent to $6.23 billion, while earnings tumbled by nearly a quarter due to a higher tax rate.

There were, however, some bright spots, with lung drug Symbicort doing well in the United States and demand picking up for new heart drug Brilinta.

Shares in the company slipped 0.7 percent by 0825 GMT (4.25 a.m. ET), underperforming a wider London benchmark index that was up 0.2 percent.

Soriot has set out a strategy of revamping research, accelerating certain development projects and striking deals, both to acquire smaller biotech companies and license in promising new medicines.

He added the latest asset to the company's pipeline on Wednesday through a tie-up with U.S. biotech firm FibroGen potentially worth more than $815 million for rights to an experimental anaemia drug.

Sales were hit in the latest quarter by falling revenue from off-patent antipsychotic drug Seroquel, as well as growing competition to top-selling cholesterol fighter Crestor, which has lost patent protection in some countries and faces pricing pressure in the United States.

Sales of Crestor in Canada, for example, were down 77 percent after loss of exclusivity there in April 2012, although overall sales of Crestor at $1.48 billion held up better than some analysts had feared.

$500 MLN PATENT HIT

Overall, the revenue impact from products which have recently lost exclusivity amounted to around $500 million.

The group reiterated its expectation for a mid-to-high single digit percentage fall in revenue this year but said operating costs are now seen increasing by a low-to-mid single digit rate, whereas previously it had forecast costs would only be "slightly higher" than 2012.

Earnings are expected to decline significantly more than revenue in 2013, it said.

Pre-tax profit on a "core" basis, which excludes certain items, fell 12 percent to $1.94 billion, generating earnings per share down 23 percent at $1.20 a share, AstraZeneca said.

Analysts had, on average, forecast sales of $6.25 billion and earnings pre share of $1.20, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Demand for Brilinta - a new heart drug for which AstraZeneca has high hopes - picked up to $65 million from $51 million in the first quarter of 2012.

Emerging markets sales were up 12 percent, with nearly half of the improvement coming from a 21 percent increase in China.

China has been a strong growth market for AstraZeneca for many years, although prospects for Western drug companies in the country have been clouded by a recent high-profile bribery scandal involving GlaxoSmithKline.

AstraZeneca said on July 22 that police in Shanghai were questioning one of its sales representatives in what it believed was a local case involving one individual.

(Editing by Kate Holton and Tom Pfeiffer)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/astrazeneca-drug-sales-fall-patent-expiries-second-quarter-062314338.html

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Stocks close on highs as markets await crucial jobs figures

stocks

11 hours ago

Stocks soared to fresh closing highs on Thursday, one day before the government releases critical jobs figures that could help determine whether the economy is healthy enough for the Federal Reserve to begin to slow down its stimulus package.

The rally, in which the S&P 500 went through the 1,700-point level for the first time, was sparked by a plethora of upbeat economic data ahead of the widely-watched jobs report set for Friday morning.

Analysts polled by Reuters expect to see a gain of 184,000 jobs in July, after a 195,000 uptick in the previous month.?

(Read more:?July jobs report key to Fed action)

"The jobs numbers have been decent as of late, but the problem is the quality of employment," said Lance Roberts, chief economist at StreetTalk Advisors. "There's also clearly a divergence between the stock market and real economy and that's because of the artificial stimulus from the Fed.

"The problem is that they're not seeing that stimulus being translated into the economy so the worry we should have is that we're inflating valuations and the issue of potentially blowing an asset bubble is very real."

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve?declined to signal when it would start tapering its bond-buying program, which has buoyed the markets. However, it did raise concerns about rising mortgage rates and flagged the risks of inflation falling too far below its target. In addition, the central bank slightly downgraded its outlook for economic growth.

But several reports on Thursday boosted the views of many analysts that the economy is getting healthier. Weekly jobless claims?dropped to a 5-1/2 year low, according to the Labor Department. And the number of planned layoffs at U.S. firms?declined modestly in July, with employers announcing 37,701 cuts last month, down 4.2 percent from June, according to the report from consultants Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

In another positive sign, the pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector accelerated in July to the?highest level since June 2011 as new orders surged, according to the Institute for Supply Management.?

The positive economic data have stimulated the stock markets recently. Major stock averages closed out their?best July since 2010 on Wednesday and so far this year, the Dow and S&P 500 have spiked more than 19 percent, while the Nasdaq has surged an impressive 21 percent.

On Thursday, the?Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked to close 128 points higher and set a fresh all-time high of 15,650.69, lifted by Bank of America and P&G. ExxonMobil was among the few Dow components in the red.

The?S&P 500 and the?Nasdaq both put on 1 percent, with the S&P 500 piercing the 1700 barrier to close at 1706.87. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, slid below 13.

All key S&P sectors closed in positive territory, led by financials and industrials.

"The rising asset prices will help instill confidence and that will breed more confidence," said Matthew Kaufler, portfolio manager of the Clover Value Fund at Federated.?

"However, we've had a great run in the market and at some point there will be a correction in the near point?still, my sense would be that there's enough momentum that we'll end the year up a few percentage points higher than where we currently are."

(Read more:Short the S&P atall-time highs? Absolutely!)

Asian stocks rallied after China's official PMI (purchasing manager's index) data showed the country's manufacturing sector continued to expand in July, defying forecasts of a contraction. But the picture was mixed, with a private gauge of factory activity by HSBC showing an 11-month low of 47.7 in July. Japan's Nikkei rallied to a one-month peak on the news, the Shanghai Composite hit a one-week high and South Korea's Kospi touched a seven-week high.

"Official PMI is more skewed to larger companies, and the HSBC figure reflects the smaller companies and that is where you get this divergence," said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics research at HSBC.

(Read more: Will China PMI mark the end of negative data surprises?)

In Europe, the European Central Bank kept its main interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent, and reiterated that rates would remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.

"Labor market conditions remain weak. Looking ahead to the remainder of the year and 2014, euro area growth should benefit from a gradual recovery in global demand," said ECB president Mario Draghi in a press conference following the announcement. "Our monetary policy stance remains accommodative for as long as necessary. We have unanimously confirmed the forward guidance we gave last time."

Euro zone manufacturing activity grew for the first time in two years in July, with the purchasing manager's index (PMI) climbing to 50.3 in July. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

And the Bank of England left its interest rates unchanged at 0.5 percent, as expected, under its new governor, Mark Carney.

(Read more:July jobs report key to Fed action)

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